The Electoral Vote: October 1st

As Democrats learned the hard way in 2000, the popular vote is sadly irrelevant in a presidential election. The key is reaching the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. As we enter OCtober, many states are holding true to their traditional red or blue alignment. Others, however, are worth singling out.

For Senator Obama, the northeast, the west coast, and the Great Lakes region provide the bulk of his electoral votes. Currently, Obama holds a comfortable lead in the following states (electoral vote numbers are in parentheses.): Maine (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Washington (11), Oregon (7), California (55), and Hawaii (4). These states provide Obama with a base of 202 electoral votes. Among these, Iowa and New Mexico are interesting because they went narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004.

Senator McCain can claim the south, the Great Plains, and the upper Rocky Mountain regions as his base. Currently, McCain maintains a comfortable lead in the following states: West Virginia (5), South Carolina (8), Georgia (15), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11) Arkansas (6), Louisiana (9), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (34), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), and Alaska (3). This gives McCain a base of 174 electoral votes.

This leaves us with thirteen states that are theoretically "in play". In reality, many of these states are probably not in play. Three such states are Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All of these states will be close, but Obama has held a consistent (if narrow) lead in the polling for both states for some time. Michigan seems especially unlikely to go McCain. The Michigan economy is a train wreck and the unions are planning a massive GOTV effort in the Wolverine State in November. The United Auto Workers even have Election Day off as a holiday. Minnesota always seems to poll close, but reliably goes Democratic every four years. If we give Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to Obama, his electoral vote total becomes 239.

Pennsylvania is the other large Kerry state from 2004 that has yet to be nailed down. The McCain campaign is focusing on Pennsylvania as one of the Kerry states most likely to flip Republican this year. Accordingly, they are pouring money and candidate time into the state. While polling trends show the state to be fairly stable in narrowly supporting Obama, McCain may get some traction here. The Obama campaign is also spending heavily in Pennsylvania and is especially targeting the Philadelphia suburbs to help carry the state. At this point, I have to classify this state as "Leaning Obama", thus giving Obama 260 electoral votes.

As in every recent election the twin titans of Ohio and Florida are again up for grabs. Both campaigns are targeting these large, diverse states with considerable time and resources. Despite Democratic strength in the urban areas of Cleveland, Youngstown, and Toledo, Ohio does have a Republican tilt. Much of Ohio consists of small, rural communities where Republicans seldom have to worry about vote percentages. Even large Cincinnati is a Republican-flavored city. I was tempted early on to classify this state as "Leans McCain", but polling trends show this state to be a statistical tie every time. At this point, Ohio is truly up for grabs.

Florida is another state that continues to confound me. This should have been a McCain state, albeit a close state. Lately, however, Obama has been moving up in the polls steadily. Florida has been hit hard by the mortgage crisis and many senior citizens in Florida are probably watching their retirement accounts closely in the current financial chaos. While I am tempted to classify Florida as "Leans McCain", I'm going to keep it as a true toss-up for now.

Virginia and North Carolina are two states that should have been a cake walk for McCain. Both of these are large, reliably Republican states. The Obama campaign targeted Virginia early on, based on the recent successes Democrats have had in Virginia with Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb. Northern Virginia is also changing. As the DC suburbs expand, so do the number of Democratic voters moving into Virginia. Virginia also has a large military presence, which has proven to be fertile ground for Republicans. yet, after the total bungling of the Iraq War by the Bush Administration, these military families may be up for grabs. Recent polling data shows Obama building a small but slowly growing lead in the Old Dominion. At this point, I'm going to place Virginia in the "Leans Obama" category. I may move it later. At this point, Obama has 273 electoral votes, three more than are needed for victory.

North Carolina has seen rapid growth in high-tech jobs and the related influx of well-educated professionals into the state's "Research Triangle" area. Obama's campaign also spent considerable resources here in the May primary election. On the other hand, there is still a lot of North Carolina that is NOT well-educated transplants or college campus. How well Obama can do among these rural and small town voters remains to be seen. I'm still going to give North Carolina to McCain by a narrow margin, bringing McCain to 189 electoral votes.

In the west, both Colorado and Nevada continue to be highly competitive. Once reliably Republican, both of these states are now highly competitive. In these states, the large and growing Latino population could prove critical. While McCain has been courting Latino voters as aggressively as Obama has, polling indicates that Latinos are favoring Obama by large margins. Perhaps McCain is suffering from the fact that he sold out his position on immigration to appease the right wing of his party, who have spent the better part of the last few years trying to mask racism as "immigration reform". Both of these states are extremely close and I think both need to be classified as "toss ups" for now.

This leaves us with two states left: quirky little new Hampshire and my own Indiana. New Hampshire has been close in the last two elections, with Bush's margin in 2000 and Kerry's margin in 2004 both being just over 1%. This year, New Hampshire looks to be just as close. However, we did see a Democratic tsunami strike New Hampshire in 2006, with both incumbent Republican congressmen and several other Republican officials swept from office. On the other hand, New Hampshire has a strange love affair with John McCain. it jump-started his candidacy back in 2000 and resurrected him from the political dead in 2008. How this will play out in the fall is still uncertain and polling here shows the candidates deadlocked in repeated polls. Thus, New Hampshire rates "toss up".

Of all the states in this election cycle, none has surprised me more than Indiana. Indiana is among the reddest of the red states in presidential elections. I used to joke that the polls close here at 6pm and the networks light the ste up red by 6:01pm. This year, however, the polls show a close race. Most show McCain up, but within the margin of error. This shocks me and I am at a loss to explain it. While Obama was expected to do well in the industrial areas in the north of the state as well as in Marion County (Indianapolis), those areas are not enough to bring the race this close. I will say that the Obama campaign has a very impressive field operation on the ground here. I believe they have 32 campaign offices around the state, while the McCain campaign has yet to do anything here. Obama is on the air with some great TV ads, while McCain is only visible on networks. As much as I would love to see my state go blue for the first time in my life, I just can't see it happening in the end. Thus, reluctantly, Indiana goes to the "Leans McCain" column.

So, where does this leave us? My current predictions have Barack Obama with 273 electoral votes and John McCain with 200. I also have five states in the toss-up category: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. Other states may move around accordingly. For example, recent polls show Missouri tightening up. I will keep you up to date.