September 29, 2008: The State of the Race

As we stand just over one month out from Election Day, this election continues to be fascinating. Unlike our friends over at Faux News, I don't pretend to be "fair and balanced". I support Barack Obama for president and have since his announcement rally. I feel that Senator Obama is the man to bring real change to this country after the Orwellian nightmare of the Bush/Cheney years.

The continuing economic crisis and the endless war in Iraq have engaged Americans in this presidential selection process in a way that I have never seen in my lifetime. From massive rallies in America's largest cities to barns here in Indiana painted with candidate logos, Americans are getting involved. They want to be heard. The vast majority of Americans feel that the country is off on the wrong track and they want a leader to put it back on track.

As we move closer to the final month of this campaign, the polls are beginning to show movement in Senator Obama's favor. This comes amid a growing financial crisis and the bizarre behavior of Senator McCain last week. it seems that Senator mcCain has very little left to offer except for gimmicks and negative ads. last week's gimmick seems to have really backfired. Citing the need to be in Washington, McCain "suspended" his campaign on the stated reason that he needed to be in Washington to work on the bailout package. Apparently, "working on" to Senator McCain means trying to stage photo ops to make your total ineffectiveness look like total effectiveness.

The truly high (or low?) point of the McCain meltdown was his threats to skip the scheduled debate with Senator Obama last Friday. Obama called his bluff, and McCain folded like a house of cards. The public wanted the debate to go forward and seemed to sense a cheap gimmick when they saw one. i don't think its coincidence that McCain has been sliding in the polls steadily since last week.

We are starting to see the results of these events in the changing Electoral College prediction maps. Formerly safe Republican states are now "toss ups", while former "toss ups" are now trending Democratic. Tomorrow, I will look at the electoral map in depth and see what each candidate needs to do to hit the magical 270.

Also this week, we have the vice presidential debate between Senator Joe Biden and SNL's Tina Fey. Oops, sorry, that's Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. The Republican noise machine has tried to set the bar so low for Palin that she would only have to appear semi-conscious for them to say that she has "exceeded expectations". Biden does run the risk, however, of coming off as "too aggressive" and appearing ungentlemanly. This happened to Republican Congressman Rick Lazio in his debate with Hillary Clinton in 2000. I look forward to seeing Sarah Palin explain to me how being able to see Russian from the Alaska coast gives her foreign policy experience or how blocking an official inquiry into your conduct as governor makes one a "reformer".

TOMORROW: Reading the Electoral College tea leaves