Posts
Well, it's finally here: Election Day. After what seems like an eternity of debates, primaries, caucuses, conventions, more debates, more speeches, a landslide of ads, and some great material On Saturday Night Live, we go to the polls.
At this point, John McCain will need a miracle to avoid humiliating defeat. In many quarters, the talk has been not "Will Barack Obama win?" but "How big will Obama win?" Some people are even wondering if the networks will wait until the west coast's polls close to declare a winner. From what I see, we will know very early on.
The key early states to watch are Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia. All of these states will have their polls close at 7pm. Most of Indiana closes at 6pm Eastern Time, but the western areas of the state are on Central Time. Traditionally, all three of these states go red within a few minutes of the polls closing. Tonight will be different. If any of these states turn blue, McCain probably has no realistic path to 270 electoral votes. Obama has enjoyed a slim lead in Virginia for some time now, but Indiana and Georgia appear too close to call at this point.
At 7:30pm Eastern Time, the polls close in North Carolina. This is another state that usually goes red fairly quickly, yet the polls here are also too close to call. While we will most likely wait for some time for North Carolina, a quick Obama victory here would be the death knell for McCain.
On the Senate side, the Democrats stand poised to make dramatic gains. Within a few minutes after the polls close, former governor Mark Warner will be declared the winner of the open Virginia race. Warner has lead his predecessor as governor, Jim Gilmore, by about twenty percent all year so this will be no surprise. Conversely, the Senate race in North Carolina could be another good indicator. Elizabeth Dole was supposed to cruise to an easy victory, but a combination of her badly run campaign, the national economic crisis, and challenger Kay Hagen's near perfect political pitch have made this a battle. An early Hagen win could bode very well for Obama in the Tarheel State.
At 8pm, the polls will close in many eastern states, most importantly Pennsylvania. A quick call of Pennsylvania may happen tonight. If it goes Obama, as all polls have indicated, there is no real way McCain gets to 270 without some HUGE upset. If Viginia and then Pennsylvania go blue, stick a fork in McCain 'cause he's DONE.
For me, a presidential election night is like watching the World Series. i prefer to avoid the big parties so I can watch the coverage uninterrupted and without having to strain to hear what's being said. I think tonight will be a night for the ages!
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
What's going on in Indiana????
If this presidential race hadn't produced enough surprises, on of the biggest is still very much in the forefront. With less than 48 hours until the polls close, Indiana is still up for grabs, according to several polls. Normally, Hoosiers are used to the networks turning Indiana red within minutes of the polls closing. This year, we may have to wait a while. The folks I talk to are all asking "What's going on with Indiana?"
First, Hoosiers are very engaged in this election, especially Democrats. This year's Democratic Primary for president was something we haven't seen in Indiana since 1968: relevant. Normally, our may primary comes long after both parties have wrapped up their nominations and we see almost no campaigning here. This year, not only was the Democratic race still very much alive in May, but Indiana proved to be a hard-fought battle. In the end, Hillary Clinton squeaked out a thin victory here.
The primary allowed the Obama forces to do two things: recruit volunteers and develop a state-wide game plan. These Obama volunteers descended on Indiana like an army in the spring, and they have come back in the fall. The Obama forces have to be the best-organized ground game that I have ever seen. They seem to be anywhere and everywhere. They have also registered tens of thousands of new voters around the state. Now, they are following up with those voters to make sure they get to the polls. In contrast, there is no McCain ground game in Indiana. McCain has one field office to cover the entire state. I have yet to encounter one McCain volunteer.
Even the candidates' schedules reflect different takes on Indiana. Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, and Joe Biden have each made campaign stops here since the Democratic Convention. Obama's crowds have been huge, culminating in a rally earlier this fall in Indianapolis where police estimate a turn-out of 20,000 on a weekday morning. In contrast, John McCain has yet to visit Indiana this fall. Sarah Palin has been here twice. It's almost as if the McCain forces are just counting on Hoosiers to vote Republican because they always do so. I'm not sure if I'd place that much faith in traditions.
This Obama-driven desire for change has filtered down to the Congressional races. In Indiana 2, freshman Congressman Joe Donnelly is cruising to an easy re-election over a completely inept Republican opponent. Donnelly has served his constituents well in his first term, but could not take his hard work for granted. Indiana 2 is very much a toss-up district, having had three different representatives in the House since 2000. Donnelly's opponent was apparently counting on being swept in by a McCain wave, as his yard signs even mimic the McCain design. Looks like the tidal wave is coming from the opposite direction.
While Donnelly cruises, Congressman Mark Souder is fighting for his political life. Souder is a Republican who represents Indian 3, a solidly Republican district in northeast Indiana. Normally, this would be a cake-walk for Souder, who routinely crushes all Democratic challengers in this very conservative district. Yet, this year is different. Souder has not done anything kooky (a la Michelle Bachmann) or corrupt to endanger his seat, yer he is finding himself locked in a tight battle with Mike Montagano, an attorney and first-time candidate. Polls are showing this race to be very close and both national parties are pouring money into it. on Election Night, Souder could be our "canary in the coal mine". All polls in this district close at 6pm Eastern Time. if Souder is defeated quickly or the race remains too close to call for some time, it may be a very bad omen for Republicans. If a scandal-free incumbent with a history of easy wins in a solidly Republican district goes down, the Republicans may look at losing more than thirty House seats.
it would seem that the only bright spot for Republicans is the almost assured re-election of Governor Mitch Daniels. Democrats had high hopes of knocking off Daniels, who had previously served as Budget Director in the Bush administration. After a very close primary, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson won the Democratic nomination and seemingly fell off the face of the earth. With a huge cash advantage, Daniels was able to run positive ads all summer and many of these ads were very well-done. In contrast, Long Thompson seemingly was nowhere to be seen. When she did resurface this fall, it was to call a press conference claiming that Daniels billed the state for political travels. Nobody cared. Long Thompson's campaign has been a major disappointment to Democrats, some of whom have referred to it in conversations with me as "non-existent" and "amateurish".
The big question now is this: will all of the efforts of the Obama campaign be enough to tip this ruby-red state blue? They key will be who can get their supporters to the polls. On this, the Obama campaign's GOTV efforts are light-years ahead of McCain's "lets hope they vote like they always do" strategy. Still, Indiana is a conservative state where Republican loyalties run deep. Early voting has exceeded all predictions and turn out is expected to shatter records.
I don't know if Indiana will turn blue or not. if it doesn't, it will surely be decided by a narrow margin. Considering that Indiana usually gives the GOP standard bearer a margin of twenty points or more, a close loss for the Obama folks will be a major victory. if they win Indiana, it will be earth-shattering.
First, Hoosiers are very engaged in this election, especially Democrats. This year's Democratic Primary for president was something we haven't seen in Indiana since 1968: relevant. Normally, our may primary comes long after both parties have wrapped up their nominations and we see almost no campaigning here. This year, not only was the Democratic race still very much alive in May, but Indiana proved to be a hard-fought battle. In the end, Hillary Clinton squeaked out a thin victory here.
The primary allowed the Obama forces to do two things: recruit volunteers and develop a state-wide game plan. These Obama volunteers descended on Indiana like an army in the spring, and they have come back in the fall. The Obama forces have to be the best-organized ground game that I have ever seen. They seem to be anywhere and everywhere. They have also registered tens of thousands of new voters around the state. Now, they are following up with those voters to make sure they get to the polls. In contrast, there is no McCain ground game in Indiana. McCain has one field office to cover the entire state. I have yet to encounter one McCain volunteer.
Even the candidates' schedules reflect different takes on Indiana. Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, and Joe Biden have each made campaign stops here since the Democratic Convention. Obama's crowds have been huge, culminating in a rally earlier this fall in Indianapolis where police estimate a turn-out of 20,000 on a weekday morning. In contrast, John McCain has yet to visit Indiana this fall. Sarah Palin has been here twice. It's almost as if the McCain forces are just counting on Hoosiers to vote Republican because they always do so. I'm not sure if I'd place that much faith in traditions.
This Obama-driven desire for change has filtered down to the Congressional races. In Indiana 2, freshman Congressman Joe Donnelly is cruising to an easy re-election over a completely inept Republican opponent. Donnelly has served his constituents well in his first term, but could not take his hard work for granted. Indiana 2 is very much a toss-up district, having had three different representatives in the House since 2000. Donnelly's opponent was apparently counting on being swept in by a McCain wave, as his yard signs even mimic the McCain design. Looks like the tidal wave is coming from the opposite direction.
While Donnelly cruises, Congressman Mark Souder is fighting for his political life. Souder is a Republican who represents Indian 3, a solidly Republican district in northeast Indiana. Normally, this would be a cake-walk for Souder, who routinely crushes all Democratic challengers in this very conservative district. Yet, this year is different. Souder has not done anything kooky (a la Michelle Bachmann) or corrupt to endanger his seat, yer he is finding himself locked in a tight battle with Mike Montagano, an attorney and first-time candidate. Polls are showing this race to be very close and both national parties are pouring money into it. on Election Night, Souder could be our "canary in the coal mine". All polls in this district close at 6pm Eastern Time. if Souder is defeated quickly or the race remains too close to call for some time, it may be a very bad omen for Republicans. If a scandal-free incumbent with a history of easy wins in a solidly Republican district goes down, the Republicans may look at losing more than thirty House seats.
it would seem that the only bright spot for Republicans is the almost assured re-election of Governor Mitch Daniels. Democrats had high hopes of knocking off Daniels, who had previously served as Budget Director in the Bush administration. After a very close primary, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson won the Democratic nomination and seemingly fell off the face of the earth. With a huge cash advantage, Daniels was able to run positive ads all summer and many of these ads were very well-done. In contrast, Long Thompson seemingly was nowhere to be seen. When she did resurface this fall, it was to call a press conference claiming that Daniels billed the state for political travels. Nobody cared. Long Thompson's campaign has been a major disappointment to Democrats, some of whom have referred to it in conversations with me as "non-existent" and "amateurish".
The big question now is this: will all of the efforts of the Obama campaign be enough to tip this ruby-red state blue? They key will be who can get their supporters to the polls. On this, the Obama campaign's GOTV efforts are light-years ahead of McCain's "lets hope they vote like they always do" strategy. Still, Indiana is a conservative state where Republican loyalties run deep. Early voting has exceeded all predictions and turn out is expected to shatter records.
I don't know if Indiana will turn blue or not. if it doesn't, it will surely be decided by a narrow margin. Considering that Indiana usually gives the GOP standard bearer a margin of twenty points or more, a close loss for the Obama folks will be a major victory. if they win Indiana, it will be earth-shattering.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
1928 and 1988: My Perspective
As the 2008 campaign enters its final week, I've had a lot of time to reflect on what this race has meant. With Barack Obama holding a lead in the polls and a commanding lead in the Electoral College, the historical implications of this election are staggering. America seems poised to tear down the "white men only" sign on the White House gate.
As I have thought about this election, the historian in me has also thought a lot about the election of 1928. It was in 1928 that the Democratic party also nominated a person who represented a dramatic break from the status quo. Alfred E. Smith was the four-term Governor of New York and a noted reformer when he was nominated by the Democratic national Convention in 1928. Smith was also a Catholic, the first Catholic to be nominated by a major political party for president. Like Barack Obama's race this year, Smith's religion saw his political opponent unleash a campaign of smear an innuendo almost beyond belief.
Growing up Catholic in a town with a large Catholic population, the idea that Catholics would be targets for bigotry simply never occurred to me. My friends and I never really talked about religion. They never asked me why we went to mass on Saturday evening or why we gave up certain things during Lent. Even in the public schools, Catholicism was no big deal.
Of course, 1928 was a far different time than the 1970's and 80's. Smith's nomination began a torrent of lies and misinformation designed to scare large segments of the population into not wanting Al Smith in the White House. Scurrilous tracts appeared claiming that President Smith would annul all Protestant marriages and that the pope would come to America to preside over cabinet meetings. Voters were warned that parochial school attendance would become mandatory for all American children. Even campaign buttons appeared that read "Keep a Christian in the White House". As Smith rode his campaign train west, the Klan and other hate groups burned crosses along the railroad tracks for Smith and his wife to see. In the end, Smith was defeated in a landslide. Historians still debate how much Smith's Catholicism hurt him. Clearly, it didn't help him as half of the Democrat's "Solid South" went Republican for the fdirst time in many memories. Outside of six Southern states, Smith only carried the heavily Catholic states of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. In any event, the campaign of 1928 was a shameful reminder of the ugly divisions in American society.
Now, eighty years later, we stand at another crossroads. The Democratic party has nominated the first major party African-American candidate for president. Like the campaign of 1928, the candidacy of Barack Obama has unleashed some examples of hate and bigotry that seem almost unimaginable. For most Americans of good conscience, these attacks read like a laundry list of absurdities: Obama is a secret Muslim, Obama is in league with terrorists, Mrs. Obama is a black militant who refers to whites as "Whitey", etc.
Here in northern Indiana, a large Obama sign in an African-American family's yard was defaced with the vile "N Word". An Obama staffer entered a Speedway gas station in Three Oaks, Michigan, and was confronted by a store employee who noticed his Obama hat and told him "You're a N----- Lover". At some mcCain rallies, persons have been spotted wearing shirts depicting Obama as a monkey.
The ultimate race-based attack of the 2008 campaign, however, came out of Pennsylvania. Ashley Todd, a McCain volunteer reported to police that she had been assaulted by a large black man while at her bank's ATM. When the man saw the McCain sticker on her car, she claimed that he pulled out a knife and carved a "B" for "Barack" into her cheek. Right wing sleaze-merchants like The Drudge Report and Faux News quickly jumped on the story and seemed to take glee in describing how the big, scary black man assaulted (Drudge said "mutilated") the helpless white woman.
While the Republican Ministry of Propoganda began working overtime on this story, the Pennsylvania police were investigating carefully. Well, it turns out that Miss Todd fabricated the entire story and scratched the "B" into her own cheek, even scratching it in backwards. I'm sure it was no coincidence that Miss Todd's fictional attacker was black. Just as I'm sure it was no coincidence that Republican sleaze merchants like Sean Hannity jumped on the story before any facts were checked. (oops! I'm sorry, since when does Faux News ever check their facts?)
What bothers me the most about the whole Ashley Todd fraud is that there has been no repudiation from the McCain campaign. Not one word has been uttered. Given the publicity surrounding this disgusting act, I'm sure even Governor Plain has heard about it. To me, their refusal to repudiate Ashley Todd only lends tacit approval to the next hate-fueled lunatic who wants to stage their own stunt.
America is faced with a momentous opportunity in one week. In giving Senator Obama an overwhelming victory on November 4, we can fully repudiate the tactics of the McCain campaign, their surrogates (both official and unofficial), and the motley crew of bigots and race-baiters who have latched onto the McCain campaign. in sending a strong message, we can show how far we, as a nation, have come from 1928. Like 1928, the 2008 campaign has exposed an ugly element in American society. We have the chance to drive it back under the rock where it belongs.
As I have thought about this election, the historian in me has also thought a lot about the election of 1928. It was in 1928 that the Democratic party also nominated a person who represented a dramatic break from the status quo. Alfred E. Smith was the four-term Governor of New York and a noted reformer when he was nominated by the Democratic national Convention in 1928. Smith was also a Catholic, the first Catholic to be nominated by a major political party for president. Like Barack Obama's race this year, Smith's religion saw his political opponent unleash a campaign of smear an innuendo almost beyond belief.
Growing up Catholic in a town with a large Catholic population, the idea that Catholics would be targets for bigotry simply never occurred to me. My friends and I never really talked about religion. They never asked me why we went to mass on Saturday evening or why we gave up certain things during Lent. Even in the public schools, Catholicism was no big deal.
Of course, 1928 was a far different time than the 1970's and 80's. Smith's nomination began a torrent of lies and misinformation designed to scare large segments of the population into not wanting Al Smith in the White House. Scurrilous tracts appeared claiming that President Smith would annul all Protestant marriages and that the pope would come to America to preside over cabinet meetings. Voters were warned that parochial school attendance would become mandatory for all American children. Even campaign buttons appeared that read "Keep a Christian in the White House". As Smith rode his campaign train west, the Klan and other hate groups burned crosses along the railroad tracks for Smith and his wife to see. In the end, Smith was defeated in a landslide. Historians still debate how much Smith's Catholicism hurt him. Clearly, it didn't help him as half of the Democrat's "Solid South" went Republican for the fdirst time in many memories. Outside of six Southern states, Smith only carried the heavily Catholic states of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. In any event, the campaign of 1928 was a shameful reminder of the ugly divisions in American society.
Now, eighty years later, we stand at another crossroads. The Democratic party has nominated the first major party African-American candidate for president. Like the campaign of 1928, the candidacy of Barack Obama has unleashed some examples of hate and bigotry that seem almost unimaginable. For most Americans of good conscience, these attacks read like a laundry list of absurdities: Obama is a secret Muslim, Obama is in league with terrorists, Mrs. Obama is a black militant who refers to whites as "Whitey", etc.
Here in northern Indiana, a large Obama sign in an African-American family's yard was defaced with the vile "N Word". An Obama staffer entered a Speedway gas station in Three Oaks, Michigan, and was confronted by a store employee who noticed his Obama hat and told him "You're a N----- Lover". At some mcCain rallies, persons have been spotted wearing shirts depicting Obama as a monkey.
The ultimate race-based attack of the 2008 campaign, however, came out of Pennsylvania. Ashley Todd, a McCain volunteer reported to police that she had been assaulted by a large black man while at her bank's ATM. When the man saw the McCain sticker on her car, she claimed that he pulled out a knife and carved a "B" for "Barack" into her cheek. Right wing sleaze-merchants like The Drudge Report and Faux News quickly jumped on the story and seemed to take glee in describing how the big, scary black man assaulted (Drudge said "mutilated") the helpless white woman.
While the Republican Ministry of Propoganda began working overtime on this story, the Pennsylvania police were investigating carefully. Well, it turns out that Miss Todd fabricated the entire story and scratched the "B" into her own cheek, even scratching it in backwards. I'm sure it was no coincidence that Miss Todd's fictional attacker was black. Just as I'm sure it was no coincidence that Republican sleaze merchants like Sean Hannity jumped on the story before any facts were checked. (oops! I'm sorry, since when does Faux News ever check their facts?)
What bothers me the most about the whole Ashley Todd fraud is that there has been no repudiation from the McCain campaign. Not one word has been uttered. Given the publicity surrounding this disgusting act, I'm sure even Governor Plain has heard about it. To me, their refusal to repudiate Ashley Todd only lends tacit approval to the next hate-fueled lunatic who wants to stage their own stunt.
America is faced with a momentous opportunity in one week. In giving Senator Obama an overwhelming victory on November 4, we can fully repudiate the tactics of the McCain campaign, their surrogates (both official and unofficial), and the motley crew of bigots and race-baiters who have latched onto the McCain campaign. in sending a strong message, we can show how far we, as a nation, have come from 1928. Like 1928, the 2008 campaign has exposed an ugly element in American society. We have the chance to drive it back under the rock where it belongs.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Best One-Liner in a While
While I really don't have much use for Jim Carville after the way he carried on during the primary season, I give credit where credit is due. Carville needs to have this line about "Joe the Plumber" etched in gold:
"The reason the Republicans found Joe the Plumber was to find someone hanging around a toilet other than Larry Craig."
"The reason the Republicans found Joe the Plumber was to find someone hanging around a toilet other than Larry Craig."
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The Governor has New Clothes and the Congresswoman Has No Friends
Just when you thought you'd heard it all about Governor Barbie Palin, the newest scandal to hit is almost beyond belief. Remember way back in August (when Palin still had credibility and McCain still had a chance) and Sarah Palin was foisted upon the nation with all the down-home spin the McCain camp could spin: hockey mom, Wal-Mart mom, girl next door, moose hunter, etc.? Well, it turned out that Sarah prefers things a little more elitist when it comes to her fashion.
It has been revealed that the Republican national Committee has shelled out $150,000 for clothing and accessories for Governor Barbie since August! Let me repeat that number: $150,000!! Of course, it seems that our faux Wal-Mart mom prefers to shop at Nieman Marcus and Sacks Fifth Avenue, including one spree at Nieman Marcus to the tune of $75,000. This is absolutely appalling! It reminds me of another clothes-horse/political joke: Imelda Marcos. If I were a donor to the RNC, I think I'd be asking for my money back!! Here is a campaign that is being forced to scale back on advertising in some swing states while the Obama camp is able to outspend them in many markets by 4:1, and they're spending $150,000 on their right-wing Barbie doll. I would say that Senator McCain is probably ashamed of this but, as this campaign has proved, Senator McCain HAS NO SHAME!
If the whole Imelda Palin affair wasn't bad enough, we have a great update on a story we brought to you earlier this week. After i posted about the disgusting rant of Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann on "Hardball" Friday, I also noted how donations to her opponent, El Tinklenberg, have skyrocketed. Tinklenberg is continuing to raise money at a break-neck pace and the Democratic Party's Congressional Campaign Committee has just kicked in $1,000,000 to his efforts!! Now, today, it was revealed that the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has cancelled all of its ad buys for the beleaguered Congresswoman. I like to think that her McCarthyist screed even turned off the NRCC, but more likely they realize that she's now a sure-fire loser and they have too man other endangered incumbents to prop up. To see a great article on the delightful implosion of Bachmann, check out our friends over at Daily Kos Also, you can still help El Tinklenberg beat this vile creature by visiting his campaign site at Tinklenberg for Congress. Beating Michelle Bachmann is not about replacing a right-wing loon of a Republican with a good Democrat, it's about standing up to the hysterical bullying by the far right and their "Democrats hate America" nonsense.
It has been revealed that the Republican national Committee has shelled out $150,000 for clothing and accessories for Governor Barbie since August! Let me repeat that number: $150,000!! Of course, it seems that our faux Wal-Mart mom prefers to shop at Nieman Marcus and Sacks Fifth Avenue, including one spree at Nieman Marcus to the tune of $75,000. This is absolutely appalling! It reminds me of another clothes-horse/political joke: Imelda Marcos. If I were a donor to the RNC, I think I'd be asking for my money back!! Here is a campaign that is being forced to scale back on advertising in some swing states while the Obama camp is able to outspend them in many markets by 4:1, and they're spending $150,000 on their right-wing Barbie doll. I would say that Senator McCain is probably ashamed of this but, as this campaign has proved, Senator McCain HAS NO SHAME!
If the whole Imelda Palin affair wasn't bad enough, we have a great update on a story we brought to you earlier this week. After i posted about the disgusting rant of Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann on "Hardball" Friday, I also noted how donations to her opponent, El Tinklenberg, have skyrocketed. Tinklenberg is continuing to raise money at a break-neck pace and the Democratic Party's Congressional Campaign Committee has just kicked in $1,000,000 to his efforts!! Now, today, it was revealed that the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has cancelled all of its ad buys for the beleaguered Congresswoman. I like to think that her McCarthyist screed even turned off the NRCC, but more likely they realize that she's now a sure-fire loser and they have too man other endangered incumbents to prop up. To see a great article on the delightful implosion of Bachmann, check out our friends over at Daily Kos Also, you can still help El Tinklenberg beat this vile creature by visiting his campaign site at Tinklenberg for Congress. Beating Michelle Bachmann is not about replacing a right-wing loon of a Republican with a good Democrat, it's about standing up to the hysterical bullying by the far right and their "Democrats hate America" nonsense.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
We're coming together..and coming apart
Over the past few days, I've been able to take some time to cruise the back roads here in Northern Indiana as well as Southwestern Michigan and I have been very surprised by what I've come across. I have never seen the level of support in this area that I am seeing for Senator Obama. While much of it is in the form of yard signs and bumper stickers, some of it is more personalized.
Near the South Bend Regional Airport, a family has turned their entire chainlink fence into one big billboard proclaiming support for Obama. Homemade letters stretch the length of the sign, making it very easy to spot from the highway. In Niles, Michigan, a young lady ringing up my purchases at an antique mall noticed my Obama button and said "He has to win. He just has to!" In Three oaks, Michigan, one yard boasted a black-and-white sign which read "Hey, You!! Bring back my Obama sign!!"
One of the real highlights of my trip was a stop at the "Harbor Country for Obama" headquarters in Union Pier, Michigan. Stopping in, I was greeted by two wonderful volunteers who made me feel so welcome. The asked where I was from, how long I had supported Senator Obama, and what things were looking like in Indiana. They also had one of the best selections of Obama buttons and T-shirts that I had ever seen locally. While I was there, a young couple from Los Angeles who were vacationing in the area stopped in. We were also joined by a lady from Chicago as well as a woman who had come to volunteer after dropping her daughter off at kindergarten. We all chatted for a few minutes. We all commented on how this campaign has given people a reason to hope again. There is a real excitement in the air.
At the same time, the open sewer that is the McCain/Palin campaign has found new ways of trying to distract the voting public from what their party has done to our nation and our economy. Now, they are using loaded words like "Un-American", "Pro-Amercia", and "Real America". As I have said before, America is so much better than what the McSlime/Palin campaign want us to think.
Last Friday, I watched "Hardball" on MSNBC and was horrified by Chris Matthews's interview with Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann. In addition to impugning Senator Obama's patriotism, Congresswoman Bachmann went on to say that the media should investigate all Democratic members of Congress to see who is Anti-American. These kind of McCarthy tactics are reprehensible. No matter how much I may disagree with a right-wing loon like Bachmann, I would never insinuate that she is somehow Anti-American.
We need to stand up to wingnuts like Bachmann. It seems a lot of people share my feelings. Since her tirade on Friday, money has poured in to her (previously) under-funded challenger, El Tinklenberg. If anyone can spare a few dollars to try to defeat this right-wing harpy, please go to Tinklenberg for Congress to make a donation. We can call it "Dollars for Decency".
Near the South Bend Regional Airport, a family has turned their entire chainlink fence into one big billboard proclaiming support for Obama. Homemade letters stretch the length of the sign, making it very easy to spot from the highway. In Niles, Michigan, a young lady ringing up my purchases at an antique mall noticed my Obama button and said "He has to win. He just has to!" In Three oaks, Michigan, one yard boasted a black-and-white sign which read "Hey, You!! Bring back my Obama sign!!"
One of the real highlights of my trip was a stop at the "Harbor Country for Obama" headquarters in Union Pier, Michigan. Stopping in, I was greeted by two wonderful volunteers who made me feel so welcome. The asked where I was from, how long I had supported Senator Obama, and what things were looking like in Indiana. They also had one of the best selections of Obama buttons and T-shirts that I had ever seen locally. While I was there, a young couple from Los Angeles who were vacationing in the area stopped in. We were also joined by a lady from Chicago as well as a woman who had come to volunteer after dropping her daughter off at kindergarten. We all chatted for a few minutes. We all commented on how this campaign has given people a reason to hope again. There is a real excitement in the air.
At the same time, the open sewer that is the McCain/Palin campaign has found new ways of trying to distract the voting public from what their party has done to our nation and our economy. Now, they are using loaded words like "Un-American", "Pro-Amercia", and "Real America". As I have said before, America is so much better than what the McSlime/Palin campaign want us to think.
Last Friday, I watched "Hardball" on MSNBC and was horrified by Chris Matthews's interview with Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann. In addition to impugning Senator Obama's patriotism, Congresswoman Bachmann went on to say that the media should investigate all Democratic members of Congress to see who is Anti-American. These kind of McCarthy tactics are reprehensible. No matter how much I may disagree with a right-wing loon like Bachmann, I would never insinuate that she is somehow Anti-American.
We need to stand up to wingnuts like Bachmann. It seems a lot of people share my feelings. Since her tirade on Friday, money has poured in to her (previously) under-funded challenger, El Tinklenberg. If anyone can spare a few dollars to try to defeat this right-wing harpy, please go to Tinklenberg for Congress to make a donation. We can call it "Dollars for Decency".
Monday, October 13, 2008
A Tale of Two Campaigns...
Here we stand, three weeks away from the most critical election in a generation. What was supposed to be another nail-biter is looking more and more like a landslide in the making. Much of this can be traced to the very different ways that Senators Obama and McCain have conducted their campaign.
Almost from the start, the Obama campaign embraced the "50 State Strategy" espoused by Howard Dean. Dean's idea was to take the fight to the Republicans in traditionally red states rather than simply trying to hold the traditionally blue states and hope for one or two pick-ups. This strategy is playing out quite nicely, with Senator Obama currently enjoying leads in the crucial states of Ohio and Florida and even showing leads in (formerly) GOP bastions like Virginia and North Carolina. Even today, Pollster.com posted a poll taken by Minnesota State University that shows Obama with a small lead in NORTH DAKOTA! While this poll may very well be an outlier, it still makes a point: the Obama surge is now permeating into traditionally safe Rpublican states.
Of course, Obama is also being aided greatly by a variety of factors. The current economic crisis has made household across the income spectrum quite nervous, while the public long ago grew tired of a seemingly endless war in Iraq. An unexpected benefit for Obama has been the total ineptitude of the McCain campaign, which seemingly has no idea what to do. Do we "suspend" our campaign to fly back to Washington to pretend to tackle the bailout? Do we just declare that we are going to "turn the page" on the economy? Or do we turn our campaign rallies into vile hate-fests resembling a Klan meeting more than a campaign rally?
Throughout this process, Barack Obama has remained a study in class. He has never stooped to McCain's level, but he also has not been afraid to defend himself from McCain and Palin's twisted distortions. Obama has stayed on message and the polls show the voters approve. Many polls currently show a double-digit lead for Obama.
For the McCain campaign, on the other hand, the news just isn't as good. For starters, there has been a notable exodus of moderate Republicans from Team McCain since McCain and Plain decided to behave more like George Wallace and less like George Washington. Last week, former Governor William Milliken of Michigan withdrew his endorsement of McCain based on the campaign's tone and Sarah Palin's complete ineptitude. Milliken called the idea of Sarah Palin becoming President "disturbing, if not appalling". Former Senator Lincoln Chaffee of Rhode Island has been stumping the country on behalf of Senator Obama. Even popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist chose to spend a day at Disneyworld rather than campaign with McCain in Florida. (This is especially ironic considering that Crist's endorsement of McCain sealed McCain's victory in the crucial Florida primary , thus ending the presidential hopes of former mayor and professional 9/11 ghoul Rudy Guiliani.
If moderate Republicans are deserting McCain, they have some conservative company. Recently, conservative heavyweight Bill Kristol said that McCain's campaign was "doomed" unless he took major steps, including firing his entire campaign staff. Newt Gingrich is predicting a McCain loss unless he dramatically shakes things up. Mitt Romney and former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson both are predicting that a toxic McCain effect could lead the party to significant losses down-ballot this November.
My first experience in working on a presidential campaign was volunteering for Michael Dukakis in 1988. As badly run as that campaign was, the 2008 McCain campaign is worse. it is a campaign devoid of ideas or real strategy. it is a campaign with no real grasp of resource allocation. For example, recently McCain spent a day campaigning in Iowa. Obama boasts a commanding lead in Iowa (a nearly12% advantage according to Real Clear Politics. Likewise, it had to be embarrassing when Sarah Palin was dispatched to Philadelphia (Obama advantage in Pennsylvania, 13%) to drop the puck at a hockey game only to be greeted by a chorus of boos from the crowd. While the McCain/Palin team continues its "victory lap" of solid Obama states, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have allocated their time to more fruitful pastures: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
John McCain has only himself to blame for his standing in the polls. It was he who made the disastrous choice of Sarah Palin to be his running mate and he has had to watch as the moose-hunting maverick hockey mom was proven to be a dimwit with ethical problems who can only read from prepared texts. It was McCain who tried the stunt of "suspending" his campaign and hinted at cancelling the first debate only to realize that voters wanted a debate and they wanted answers. It was McCain who let the crowds at his rallies degenerate into hateful, racist mobs without (until recently) even bothering to ask for decorum. And it will be McCain who will be on the receiving end of 9potentially) the greatest electoral landslide since George Herbert Walker buried Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Almost from the start, the Obama campaign embraced the "50 State Strategy" espoused by Howard Dean. Dean's idea was to take the fight to the Republicans in traditionally red states rather than simply trying to hold the traditionally blue states and hope for one or two pick-ups. This strategy is playing out quite nicely, with Senator Obama currently enjoying leads in the crucial states of Ohio and Florida and even showing leads in (formerly) GOP bastions like Virginia and North Carolina. Even today, Pollster.com posted a poll taken by Minnesota State University that shows Obama with a small lead in NORTH DAKOTA! While this poll may very well be an outlier, it still makes a point: the Obama surge is now permeating into traditionally safe Rpublican states.
Of course, Obama is also being aided greatly by a variety of factors. The current economic crisis has made household across the income spectrum quite nervous, while the public long ago grew tired of a seemingly endless war in Iraq. An unexpected benefit for Obama has been the total ineptitude of the McCain campaign, which seemingly has no idea what to do. Do we "suspend" our campaign to fly back to Washington to pretend to tackle the bailout? Do we just declare that we are going to "turn the page" on the economy? Or do we turn our campaign rallies into vile hate-fests resembling a Klan meeting more than a campaign rally?
Throughout this process, Barack Obama has remained a study in class. He has never stooped to McCain's level, but he also has not been afraid to defend himself from McCain and Palin's twisted distortions. Obama has stayed on message and the polls show the voters approve. Many polls currently show a double-digit lead for Obama.
For the McCain campaign, on the other hand, the news just isn't as good. For starters, there has been a notable exodus of moderate Republicans from Team McCain since McCain and Plain decided to behave more like George Wallace and less like George Washington. Last week, former Governor William Milliken of Michigan withdrew his endorsement of McCain based on the campaign's tone and Sarah Palin's complete ineptitude. Milliken called the idea of Sarah Palin becoming President "disturbing, if not appalling". Former Senator Lincoln Chaffee of Rhode Island has been stumping the country on behalf of Senator Obama. Even popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist chose to spend a day at Disneyworld rather than campaign with McCain in Florida. (This is especially ironic considering that Crist's endorsement of McCain sealed McCain's victory in the crucial Florida primary , thus ending the presidential hopes of former mayor and professional 9/11 ghoul Rudy Guiliani.
If moderate Republicans are deserting McCain, they have some conservative company. Recently, conservative heavyweight Bill Kristol said that McCain's campaign was "doomed" unless he took major steps, including firing his entire campaign staff. Newt Gingrich is predicting a McCain loss unless he dramatically shakes things up. Mitt Romney and former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson both are predicting that a toxic McCain effect could lead the party to significant losses down-ballot this November.
My first experience in working on a presidential campaign was volunteering for Michael Dukakis in 1988. As badly run as that campaign was, the 2008 McCain campaign is worse. it is a campaign devoid of ideas or real strategy. it is a campaign with no real grasp of resource allocation. For example, recently McCain spent a day campaigning in Iowa. Obama boasts a commanding lead in Iowa (a nearly12% advantage according to Real Clear Politics. Likewise, it had to be embarrassing when Sarah Palin was dispatched to Philadelphia (Obama advantage in Pennsylvania, 13%) to drop the puck at a hockey game only to be greeted by a chorus of boos from the crowd. While the McCain/Palin team continues its "victory lap" of solid Obama states, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have allocated their time to more fruitful pastures: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
John McCain has only himself to blame for his standing in the polls. It was he who made the disastrous choice of Sarah Palin to be his running mate and he has had to watch as the moose-hunting maverick hockey mom was proven to be a dimwit with ethical problems who can only read from prepared texts. It was McCain who tried the stunt of "suspending" his campaign and hinted at cancelling the first debate only to realize that voters wanted a debate and they wanted answers. It was McCain who let the crowds at his rallies degenerate into hateful, racist mobs without (until recently) even bothering to ask for decorum. And it will be McCain who will be on the receiving end of 9potentially) the greatest electoral landslide since George Herbert Walker buried Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
John McCain: American Disgrace
What has happened to Senator John McCain over the course of Campaign 2008? never before have I seen a candidate for office so completely changed over the course of one election. Like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, what the change has resulted in is abhorrent.
John McCain entered this campaign with a truly inspiring story in many respects. The son and grandson of admirals in the US navy, McCain followed the family tradition and entered the navy after graduation from the US Naval Academy. McCain proudly served his country during the Vietnam War, and his years-long nightmare as a POW is truly the stuff of legends.
Coming into 2008, McCain enjoyed admirers across the political spectrum. He was seen as an independent voice in Washington, a real maverick. His signature issue was campaign finance reform. A frequent guest of both news programs and late-night comedians, he appeared at ease with almost any interviewer. he looked to be a formidable candidate.
Then something changed. Something caused a change in McCain. maybe it was the brutal early stages of the fight for the Republican nomination. maybe it was the meteoric rise of Barack Obama to near rock star status. Maybe it was frustration at being saddled with the toxic legacy of a president who was responsible for derailing McCain's 2000 campaign. in any event, McCain began to change.
McCain's behavior began to become erratic. For most of 2008, McCain had gotten a lot of traction by questioning Senator Obama's perceived lack of experience. This was a good argument for McCain. Then, he announced that his running mate would be an unknown, freshman governor with no national experience and a pending ethics investigation by her own party. At first, the choice of Sarah Plain was hailed as a game changer. As the press and the public got to learn more about Sarah Palin, she did become a game-changer: she turned off swing voters as she energized the far right.
The GOP convention in Minnesota also showed changes in John McCain. The McCain campaign had always expressed a desire to wage an above-board campaign and to talk about issues. The convention gave us neither. From Mitt Romney's shrill attacks to Joe Lieberman's open contempt for a party who had nominated him for vice president just eight years ago, the venom flowed freely. McCain's camp even sought to rekindle American memories of a national tragedy by running a shockingly graphic "Memorial Video" regarding 9/11. To continue the blatant fear-mongering, they chose Rudy Guiliani to be their keynote speaker. Rudy Giuliani, the philandering ghoul who has turned 9/11 into a very profitable cottage industry for himself.
As McCain's post-convention bounce faded and turned into an Obama lead, a truly frightening change came over John McCain. Abandoning his calls for a clean, upright campaign, McCain and his forces have taken a road so low as to be almost uncharted. In addition to the traditional denouncing of the Democratic candidate as an "extreme liberal" who is "out of touch", the McCain campaign has chosen to run a campaign designed to appeal to some of the most sinister elements in America today.
For McCain, it is no longer a question of personal honor. It is about winning at any cost. No price is too dear for McCain in his blind lust for victory. He has shown that he will impugn Senator Obama's patriotism and even his standing as an American. McCain has played on both subtle and overt racist slants to try to scare voters. he has even blatantly lied on the stump.
Of course, McCain has proven himself to much of a coward to lob many of the worst attacks himself. For this, he has conveniently chosen to hide behind Governor Palin's skirts. The same Governor Palin whose ignorance on a myriad of topics has caused her reputation to devolve into something akin to a "National Bimbo" is now the McCain attack dog. McCain doesn't seem to have any courage left. The tone at several recent McCain rallies has gotten ugly. Egged on by McCain (but usually Palin), crowds are now shouting "terrorist" when Senator Obama's name is mentioned. At a recent rally , cries of "Treason" and "Off with his head" were heard. All the while, McCain and Plain grin wildly from the dais. Even George Wallace's rallies were less racist that those encouraged by Team McCain.
America is better than this. I used to think that John McCain was better than this. Apparently, he is not. A war hero has morphed into a racist demagogue. The former "maverick" has become a Rove disciple, sowing fear and discord in place of ideas. The candidate who once promised us a clean, issues-oriented campaign has given us a campaign that has left many Americans embarrassed at best and sickened at worst.
In the end, the ultimate victim of this tragedy will be John McCain. At this point, his campaign appears doomed. Unlike Bob Dole, who managed to maintain his dignity in defeat, McCain has no dignity left. His reputation will be permanently tarnished by his own slime. When the curtain comes down on the McCain campaign next month, it will also come down on McCain's reputation. rather than his work in the Senate or his much-vaunted bipartisanship, the McCain legacy will be summed up in two words: national disgrace.
John McCain entered this campaign with a truly inspiring story in many respects. The son and grandson of admirals in the US navy, McCain followed the family tradition and entered the navy after graduation from the US Naval Academy. McCain proudly served his country during the Vietnam War, and his years-long nightmare as a POW is truly the stuff of legends.
Coming into 2008, McCain enjoyed admirers across the political spectrum. He was seen as an independent voice in Washington, a real maverick. His signature issue was campaign finance reform. A frequent guest of both news programs and late-night comedians, he appeared at ease with almost any interviewer. he looked to be a formidable candidate.
Then something changed. Something caused a change in McCain. maybe it was the brutal early stages of the fight for the Republican nomination. maybe it was the meteoric rise of Barack Obama to near rock star status. Maybe it was frustration at being saddled with the toxic legacy of a president who was responsible for derailing McCain's 2000 campaign. in any event, McCain began to change.
McCain's behavior began to become erratic. For most of 2008, McCain had gotten a lot of traction by questioning Senator Obama's perceived lack of experience. This was a good argument for McCain. Then, he announced that his running mate would be an unknown, freshman governor with no national experience and a pending ethics investigation by her own party. At first, the choice of Sarah Plain was hailed as a game changer. As the press and the public got to learn more about Sarah Palin, she did become a game-changer: she turned off swing voters as she energized the far right.
The GOP convention in Minnesota also showed changes in John McCain. The McCain campaign had always expressed a desire to wage an above-board campaign and to talk about issues. The convention gave us neither. From Mitt Romney's shrill attacks to Joe Lieberman's open contempt for a party who had nominated him for vice president just eight years ago, the venom flowed freely. McCain's camp even sought to rekindle American memories of a national tragedy by running a shockingly graphic "Memorial Video" regarding 9/11. To continue the blatant fear-mongering, they chose Rudy Guiliani to be their keynote speaker. Rudy Giuliani, the philandering ghoul who has turned 9/11 into a very profitable cottage industry for himself.
As McCain's post-convention bounce faded and turned into an Obama lead, a truly frightening change came over John McCain. Abandoning his calls for a clean, upright campaign, McCain and his forces have taken a road so low as to be almost uncharted. In addition to the traditional denouncing of the Democratic candidate as an "extreme liberal" who is "out of touch", the McCain campaign has chosen to run a campaign designed to appeal to some of the most sinister elements in America today.
For McCain, it is no longer a question of personal honor. It is about winning at any cost. No price is too dear for McCain in his blind lust for victory. He has shown that he will impugn Senator Obama's patriotism and even his standing as an American. McCain has played on both subtle and overt racist slants to try to scare voters. he has even blatantly lied on the stump.
Of course, McCain has proven himself to much of a coward to lob many of the worst attacks himself. For this, he has conveniently chosen to hide behind Governor Palin's skirts. The same Governor Palin whose ignorance on a myriad of topics has caused her reputation to devolve into something akin to a "National Bimbo" is now the McCain attack dog. McCain doesn't seem to have any courage left. The tone at several recent McCain rallies has gotten ugly. Egged on by McCain (but usually Palin), crowds are now shouting "terrorist" when Senator Obama's name is mentioned. At a recent rally , cries of "Treason" and "Off with his head" were heard. All the while, McCain and Plain grin wildly from the dais. Even George Wallace's rallies were less racist that those encouraged by Team McCain.
America is better than this. I used to think that John McCain was better than this. Apparently, he is not. A war hero has morphed into a racist demagogue. The former "maverick" has become a Rove disciple, sowing fear and discord in place of ideas. The candidate who once promised us a clean, issues-oriented campaign has given us a campaign that has left many Americans embarrassed at best and sickened at worst.
In the end, the ultimate victim of this tragedy will be John McCain. At this point, his campaign appears doomed. Unlike Bob Dole, who managed to maintain his dignity in defeat, McCain has no dignity left. His reputation will be permanently tarnished by his own slime. When the curtain comes down on the McCain campaign next month, it will also come down on McCain's reputation. rather than his work in the Senate or his much-vaunted bipartisanship, the McCain legacy will be summed up in two words: national disgrace.
Well, the news from the battleground states cannot be bringing much comfort to the McCain campaign. Last week, they decided to "wave the white flag of surrender" (Thanks, Sarah, wink, wink!!) in Michigan. After the newest round of polls, they may want to buy a lot more white linen.
Pollster.com has been doing a yeoman's job of gathering and compiling polling data to try to give us a good idea of where the states stand. Last week, I was considering five states to be true toss-ups: New Hampshire, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada. Recent polling has shown that New Hampshire has moved towards Obama, with some polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead in the Granite State.
Likewise, Colorado seems to be trending away from McCain. While some polls have shown Obama moving way out ahead, most pollsters are showing Obama with a lead of a few points. In many polls, the spread is withing the margin of error.
Nevada, on the other hand, has remained firmly in the toss-up category. Various polls show minute leads for either candidate. Pollster.com is giving Obama an aggregate lead of two percent, well within anyone's margin of error. We may be up quite late election night waiting for Nevada to be decided.
Much to the consternation of Republicans, Ohio and Florida are also trending Obama's way. in some polls, Obama has now topped 50% in Florida. Ohio is closer than Flrodia, but most polls are giving Obama a slight lead in the Buckeye State.
One other state that promises to be a cliff-hanger is North Carolina. Polling in this state has been TIGHT. Leads are fluctuating, many polls are tied, and nobody is outside of the margin of error. This is terrible news for the McCain folks. North Carolina has not voted Democratic since 1976. George W. Bush carried it by twelve percent in 2004.
Another state that may be entering the realm of the toss-up is West Virginia. This was formerly a Democratic stronghold in presidential elections. It was one of only five states to stick with Jimmy Carter in 1980 and one of only ten who went for Michael Dukakis in 1988. In 2000, however, many political observers were shocked when West Virginia went to George W. Bush. Recent polls have shown the 2008 race to be tightening in West Virginia. unfotunatley, there have just not been many polls done here to establish a true trend.
My current Electoral College forecast:
Barack Obama: 333
John McCain: 169
Toss-Ups: 36*
* = My remaining toss-up states are: West Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada
Pollster.com has been doing a yeoman's job of gathering and compiling polling data to try to give us a good idea of where the states stand. Last week, I was considering five states to be true toss-ups: New Hampshire, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada. Recent polling has shown that New Hampshire has moved towards Obama, with some polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead in the Granite State.
Likewise, Colorado seems to be trending away from McCain. While some polls have shown Obama moving way out ahead, most pollsters are showing Obama with a lead of a few points. In many polls, the spread is withing the margin of error.
Nevada, on the other hand, has remained firmly in the toss-up category. Various polls show minute leads for either candidate. Pollster.com is giving Obama an aggregate lead of two percent, well within anyone's margin of error. We may be up quite late election night waiting for Nevada to be decided.
Much to the consternation of Republicans, Ohio and Florida are also trending Obama's way. in some polls, Obama has now topped 50% in Florida. Ohio is closer than Flrodia, but most polls are giving Obama a slight lead in the Buckeye State.
One other state that promises to be a cliff-hanger is North Carolina. Polling in this state has been TIGHT. Leads are fluctuating, many polls are tied, and nobody is outside of the margin of error. This is terrible news for the McCain folks. North Carolina has not voted Democratic since 1976. George W. Bush carried it by twelve percent in 2004.
Another state that may be entering the realm of the toss-up is West Virginia. This was formerly a Democratic stronghold in presidential elections. It was one of only five states to stick with Jimmy Carter in 1980 and one of only ten who went for Michael Dukakis in 1988. In 2000, however, many political observers were shocked when West Virginia went to George W. Bush. Recent polls have shown the 2008 race to be tightening in West Virginia. unfotunatley, there have just not been many polls done here to establish a true trend.
My current Electoral College forecast:
Barack Obama: 333
John McCain: 169
Toss-Ups: 36*
* = My remaining toss-up states are: West Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Words from The Boss
Bruce Springsteen recently had some words at a get-out-the vote rally about the state we are in right now. They say it better than almost anyone else I've heard. Here ya go:
Thank you Mr. Springsteen. (A bit of his speech at the Ohio rally--Pennsylvania, too.)...
"I've continued to find, wherever I go, that America remains a repository of peoples' hopes, possibilities, and desires, and that despite the terrible erosion to our standing around the world, accomplished by our recent administration, we remain for many, many people this house of dreams. One thousand George Bushes and one thousand Dick Cheneys will never be able to tear that house down.
They will, however, be leaving office -- that's the good news. The bad news is that they'll be leaving office dropping the national tragedies of Katrina, Iraq, and our financial crisis in our laps. Our sacred house of dreams has been abused, it's been looted, and it's been left in a terrible state of disrepair. It needs care; it needs saving, it needs defending against those who would sell it down the river for power or a quick buck. It needs a citizenry with strong arms, hearts, and minds. It needs someone with Senator Obama's understanding, temperateness, deliberativeness, maturity, compassion, toughness, and faith, to help us rebuild our house once again.
But most importantly, it needs you. And me. It needs us, to rebuild our house with the generosity that is at the heart of the American spirit. A house that is truer and big enough to contain the hopes and dreams of all of our fellow citizens. Because that is where our future lies. We will rise or we will fall as a people by our ability to accomplish this task. Now I don't know about you, but I know that I want my house back, I want my America back, and I want my country back.
So now is the time to stand with Barack Obama and Joe Biden, roll up our sleeves, and come on up for the rising."The Great Debates, Round 2
Well, the second of the presidential debates has concluded. The town hall format was supposed to be a big plus for John McCain, but it just didn't seem that way. I also take issue with this beig called a "town hall format". Let's call this what it is folk, a joint press conference where voters get to ask pre-screened questions.
Coming into this debate, all Barack Obama had to do was not screw up. He is up in every poll, he is pulling away from McCain in the battleground states, and his favorability numbers are on the rise. This late in the game, Obama can afford to let the clock run down. Time is clearly onhis side.
For McCain, he needed a game changing moment tonight and he didn't get one. In fact, I don't think tonight served McCain very well at all. Of course, coming on the heels of Sarah Palin's alternatingly corny and creepy (wink, wink!) performance last week, McCain had nowhere to go but up.
First of all, the contrast between the two men on a physical level did not help McCain. Obama is very at ease with people and it showed. He looked at them, went up to them, and moved around the debate set with little effort. McCain, in contrast, moved around like a man well into his seventies. At times, I was afraid that he might fall and break a hip. Further, McCain's smiles always seemed forced, as if he was gritting his teeth.
McCain's attempts at humor also seemed to fall flat with the audience. From his lame joke about a hair transplant to his (perhaps unintentional) insult to Tom Brokaw about not picking Brokaw for the cabinet, McCain's humor fell flat. Perhaps voters realize what serious trouble we are in right now, and lame jokes are just not appealing as substitutes for serious policy.
I was honestly surprised that McCain didn't engage in more personal attacks against Obama. With Sarah the Dung-Flinging Howler Monkey spewing verbal garbage at every stop, I expected John McCain to at least try to go after Obama. He never did. Perhaps even McCain can see by the poll numbers that the garbage campaign is just not working. Had he done so, I think it would have backfired. Americans are remarkably engaged in this election and are gravitating toward serious issues, not an obvious string of gimmicks.
As a charter member of Generation X, one line of McCain's caught my attention fully. in the discussion of Social Security reform, McCain noted that future retirees will not be able to count on the same comparable level of benefits current retirees enjoy. I am going to be VERY interested to see how Team McCain spins this one to the post-Baby Boomer generations.
I think the debate performances were close, but I think the edge has to go to Senator Obama. He did what he had to do: he looked like a plausible president. McCain looked like a grumpy old man. This debate should not cause any significant change in the race. McCain has one last shot with the third debate to hope for a game-changer. Given the way the first two debates have come off, I find that very unlikely.
Coming into this debate, all Barack Obama had to do was not screw up. He is up in every poll, he is pulling away from McCain in the battleground states, and his favorability numbers are on the rise. This late in the game, Obama can afford to let the clock run down. Time is clearly onhis side.
For McCain, he needed a game changing moment tonight and he didn't get one. In fact, I don't think tonight served McCain very well at all. Of course, coming on the heels of Sarah Palin's alternatingly corny and creepy (wink, wink!) performance last week, McCain had nowhere to go but up.
First of all, the contrast between the two men on a physical level did not help McCain. Obama is very at ease with people and it showed. He looked at them, went up to them, and moved around the debate set with little effort. McCain, in contrast, moved around like a man well into his seventies. At times, I was afraid that he might fall and break a hip. Further, McCain's smiles always seemed forced, as if he was gritting his teeth.
McCain's attempts at humor also seemed to fall flat with the audience. From his lame joke about a hair transplant to his (perhaps unintentional) insult to Tom Brokaw about not picking Brokaw for the cabinet, McCain's humor fell flat. Perhaps voters realize what serious trouble we are in right now, and lame jokes are just not appealing as substitutes for serious policy.
I was honestly surprised that McCain didn't engage in more personal attacks against Obama. With Sarah the Dung-Flinging Howler Monkey spewing verbal garbage at every stop, I expected John McCain to at least try to go after Obama. He never did. Perhaps even McCain can see by the poll numbers that the garbage campaign is just not working. Had he done so, I think it would have backfired. Americans are remarkably engaged in this election and are gravitating toward serious issues, not an obvious string of gimmicks.
As a charter member of Generation X, one line of McCain's caught my attention fully. in the discussion of Social Security reform, McCain noted that future retirees will not be able to count on the same comparable level of benefits current retirees enjoy. I am going to be VERY interested to see how Team McCain spins this one to the post-Baby Boomer generations.
I think the debate performances were close, but I think the edge has to go to Senator Obama. He did what he had to do: he looked like a plausible president. McCain looked like a grumpy old man. This debate should not cause any significant change in the race. McCain has one last shot with the third debate to hope for a game-changer. Given the way the first two debates have come off, I find that very unlikely.
Monday, October 6, 2008
The Incredible, Shrinking John McCain
It really amazes me how the image of John McCain has changed over the course of this campaign. Coming into this year, McCain's image could be summed up in three phrases: "Maverick", "War Hero", and "Straight Talk". Now, with Election Day less than a month away, we see a very different John McCain. The McCain of October, 2008, seems a far cry from the McCain of last January. Now, the words swirling around McCain are much different: "Bitter", "Nasty", and "Desperate".
This comes as the McCain campaign has seen major setbacks in a vast number of polls since last week. With the continuing economic meltdown and Sarah Palin's less-than-stellar debate performance, things seem to be moving away from McCain. Pollster.com shows several swing states moving into Obama's column: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, and even Florida now are blue on the trend maps.
Now, the same advisers who told McCain that the way to seem presidential was to pretend to suspend your campaign and to cry "foul" when Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin such mind-benders as "What magazines do you read?" have now decided that the only way they can win is by going all-out negative against Senator Obama and "turning the page" on the economy. As Daily Kos reported yesterday:
Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.
Looks like the Straight Talk Express is about to go mud-boggin'! What I find most baffling about this is the risk involved. OK, so we talk about Obama's (at best) casual acquaintence Bill Ayers. What about John McCain's old pal and bribe source Charles Keating (remember the "Keating Five" anyone? You know they're also planning on resurrecting Reverend Wright. I really hope they do that. That way, we can talk about the questionable cast of characters that make up the spiritual wing of Team McCain/Palin. We have McCain supporter Pastor Hagee, a notorious anti-Semite who is an equal-opportunity bigot. Hagee also spews hate for Catholics to a ludicrous degree. Hagee has compared the pope to the anti-christ and has stated that Hitler did what he did because he was educated at a Catholic school. You cannot make this stuff up!!!! The Columbia Journalism Review ran a great piece on McCain's favorite spiritual bigot.
And it's not only Senator McCain with some shady spiritual counsel. it turns out that the evangelist who Sarah Palin freuquently praises and gives credit to for her success is truly a dying breed. Pastor Thomas Muthee is an actual witch-hunter. Now, I'm not talking about witch-hunts as in Joe McCarthy bellowing about Communists in government. I'm talking about a man who goes around looking for actual witches. We may have even uncovered footage of Pastor Muthee hard at work: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g
In alls seriousness, what does it say about the mindset of any candidate for national office whose own spiritual adviser believes in witches? This is America 2008, not Salem in the 1690's. Here is a real clip of Plain and her buddy Muthee courtesy of Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwkb9_zB2Pg
Nice to see a pastor asking Jesus to fund her campaigns, huh?
In short, McCain has shrunk over the course of this campaign. From the man who pledged early on to wage a clean, issues-oriented campaign, he has shrunk into a nasty, bitter man who thinks that personal destruction is a good alternative to talking about the issues that the vast majority of American's care about. John McCain and Sarah Palin on the campaign trail are no better than a pair of dung-hurling Howler monkeys. At a time where America is facing economic meltdown at home and an endless war abroad, we should expect a higher standard from our candidates.
This comes as the McCain campaign has seen major setbacks in a vast number of polls since last week. With the continuing economic meltdown and Sarah Palin's less-than-stellar debate performance, things seem to be moving away from McCain. Pollster.com shows several swing states moving into Obama's column: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, and even Florida now are blue on the trend maps.
Now, the same advisers who told McCain that the way to seem presidential was to pretend to suspend your campaign and to cry "foul" when Katie Couric asked Sarah Palin such mind-benders as "What magazines do you read?" have now decided that the only way they can win is by going all-out negative against Senator Obama and "turning the page" on the economy. As Daily Kos reported yesterday:
Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.
Looks like the Straight Talk Express is about to go mud-boggin'! What I find most baffling about this is the risk involved. OK, so we talk about Obama's (at best) casual acquaintence Bill Ayers. What about John McCain's old pal and bribe source Charles Keating (remember the "Keating Five" anyone? You know they're also planning on resurrecting Reverend Wright. I really hope they do that. That way, we can talk about the questionable cast of characters that make up the spiritual wing of Team McCain/Palin. We have McCain supporter Pastor Hagee, a notorious anti-Semite who is an equal-opportunity bigot. Hagee also spews hate for Catholics to a ludicrous degree. Hagee has compared the pope to the anti-christ and has stated that Hitler did what he did because he was educated at a Catholic school. You cannot make this stuff up!!!! The Columbia Journalism Review ran a great piece on McCain's favorite spiritual bigot.
And it's not only Senator McCain with some shady spiritual counsel. it turns out that the evangelist who Sarah Palin freuquently praises and gives credit to for her success is truly a dying breed. Pastor Thomas Muthee is an actual witch-hunter. Now, I'm not talking about witch-hunts as in Joe McCarthy bellowing about Communists in government. I'm talking about a man who goes around looking for actual witches. We may have even uncovered footage of Pastor Muthee hard at work: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g
In alls seriousness, what does it say about the mindset of any candidate for national office whose own spiritual adviser believes in witches? This is America 2008, not Salem in the 1690's. Here is a real clip of Plain and her buddy Muthee courtesy of Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwkb9_zB2Pg
Nice to see a pastor asking Jesus to fund her campaigns, huh?
In short, McCain has shrunk over the course of this campaign. From the man who pledged early on to wage a clean, issues-oriented campaign, he has shrunk into a nasty, bitter man who thinks that personal destruction is a good alternative to talking about the issues that the vast majority of American's care about. John McCain and Sarah Palin on the campaign trail are no better than a pair of dung-hurling Howler monkeys. At a time where America is facing economic meltdown at home and an endless war abroad, we should expect a higher standard from our candidates.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
McCain cuts and runs
This afternoon, amid all of the hoopla surrounding tonight's vice presidential debate, the McCain campaign quietly folded their tents and beat a hasty retreat out of Michigan. They will be off the air in Michigan, they will do no direct mailings, and they will not have any staff in Michigan. in short, McCain has "waved the white flag of surrender" in Michigan.
This really should come as no surprise. McCain's numbers in all of the swing states are tanking. In one week, Barack Obama has moved ahead in the polls in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Missouri has moved from "leans McCain" to "toss up". If the election were held today, Senator Obama would score a Clintonesque landslide in the Electoral College.
For a great recap of the polls, check out Pollster.com.
It is clear that, at this time, McCain's firewall is collapsing. There should be no reason that a Republican is having to spend valuable (and limited) resources in states like Indiana and Virginia this late in the game. it seems that the McCain strategy of fighting Obama in the big industrial states has backfired miserably. By wasting precious time and money in these large, expensive states, McCain is leaving less for traditionally Republican states that are now suddenly trending Obama. If McCain is forced to cede any of the Bush 2004 states to Obama, the electoral map begins to look dicey for McCain to get to 270 electoral votes.
I would look for the next state for McCain to abandon to be either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. in Pennsylvania, the cost of air time alone may eventually force this decision to provide adequate resources in the "firewall states".
This really should come as no surprise. McCain's numbers in all of the swing states are tanking. In one week, Barack Obama has moved ahead in the polls in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Missouri has moved from "leans McCain" to "toss up". If the election were held today, Senator Obama would score a Clintonesque landslide in the Electoral College.
For a great recap of the polls, check out Pollster.com.
It is clear that, at this time, McCain's firewall is collapsing. There should be no reason that a Republican is having to spend valuable (and limited) resources in states like Indiana and Virginia this late in the game. it seems that the McCain strategy of fighting Obama in the big industrial states has backfired miserably. By wasting precious time and money in these large, expensive states, McCain is leaving less for traditionally Republican states that are now suddenly trending Obama. If McCain is forced to cede any of the Bush 2004 states to Obama, the electoral map begins to look dicey for McCain to get to 270 electoral votes.
I would look for the next state for McCain to abandon to be either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. in Pennsylvania, the cost of air time alone may eventually force this decision to provide adequate resources in the "firewall states".
Biden v. Palin: My Observations
Tonight's debate between Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin was probably the most eagerly anticipated vice presidential debate in out history. Democratic operatives predicted a total Palin meltdown, while Republicans hoped for a total game-changer. It seems they were both wrong.
Tonight, Sarah Palin probably exceeded most people's expectations for her performance. of course, these expectations were set SO LOW that by not falling off the stage or by actually speaking in complete sentences, these expectations were met. The fact that we would even need to set standards that low for anyone who might become President of the United States is beyond frightening. We are here to audition a potential president, not hold a student council debate.
Palin tonight came across as a weird combination of "over programmed" and "over folksy". At some point, I expected her to use the phrase "golly gee willikers". Many of the responses she gave were so mechanical that it was easy to see her memorization. Her vague response to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis pretty much was "I love Israel." I wonder if she could actually find Israel on a world map.
At times, Palin came at the Obama-Biden ticket fairly strong, particularly on the Iraq War and Senator Obama's opposition to the War and the Surge. Then, she went overboard. Accusing Democrats of "waving the white flag of surrender" was overkill. With most Americans wanting us out of Iraq, her criticizing the Democrats for wanting out was probably not helpful. Then, going on to give the wrong name of the general in charge of Afghanistan and to give a wrong answer to the number of troops there quickly returned us to "Amateur Hour".
I also thought Joe Biden under-performed. At times, he came across and boring and stuffy. At times, he got a little too windy, as with his long answer regarding civil rights for same-sex couples. This is one area where I will give Sarah Palin some credit for guts. By saying she supported civil rights for same-sex couples, she took a big risk in her party. Even thought she quickly changed the subject to opposing gay marriage, her stance was still a courageous one.
Biden's strongest moments came toward the end of the debate. When he choked up over his dead wife and daughter, i think Americans saw real emotion that is so lacking in politics today. Of course, Plain taking some subtle digs at Biden by talking about her experiences as a mother set up the scenario perfectly. I wonder if she was unaware of the Biden family tragedy? Is she was unaware, why was she unaware??
Biden also wiped the floor with Palin in terms of closing statements. Her rather bizarre ramblings about losing our freedom and explaining to our children what freedom was like seemed almost our of some Cold War-era propoganda film. Biden's closing remark, however, were dead on. Calling for a complete change from the failed Bush administration, Biden summed this election up perfectly.
All in all, no one could argue that Biden won the debate. He may have been a bit boring, but he showed a real grasp of the issues and a real gravitas. Palin, on the other hand, showed that she is just not ready for the big leagues. While her performance was not the total disaster some had been predicting, I don't think any impartial observer watching could honestly say that Sarah Palin is ready to be president should the need arise.
Tonight, Sarah Palin probably exceeded most people's expectations for her performance. of course, these expectations were set SO LOW that by not falling off the stage or by actually speaking in complete sentences, these expectations were met. The fact that we would even need to set standards that low for anyone who might become President of the United States is beyond frightening. We are here to audition a potential president, not hold a student council debate.
Palin tonight came across as a weird combination of "over programmed" and "over folksy". At some point, I expected her to use the phrase "golly gee willikers". Many of the responses she gave were so mechanical that it was easy to see her memorization. Her vague response to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis pretty much was "I love Israel." I wonder if she could actually find Israel on a world map.
At times, Palin came at the Obama-Biden ticket fairly strong, particularly on the Iraq War and Senator Obama's opposition to the War and the Surge. Then, she went overboard. Accusing Democrats of "waving the white flag of surrender" was overkill. With most Americans wanting us out of Iraq, her criticizing the Democrats for wanting out was probably not helpful. Then, going on to give the wrong name of the general in charge of Afghanistan and to give a wrong answer to the number of troops there quickly returned us to "Amateur Hour".
I also thought Joe Biden under-performed. At times, he came across and boring and stuffy. At times, he got a little too windy, as with his long answer regarding civil rights for same-sex couples. This is one area where I will give Sarah Palin some credit for guts. By saying she supported civil rights for same-sex couples, she took a big risk in her party. Even thought she quickly changed the subject to opposing gay marriage, her stance was still a courageous one.
Biden's strongest moments came toward the end of the debate. When he choked up over his dead wife and daughter, i think Americans saw real emotion that is so lacking in politics today. Of course, Plain taking some subtle digs at Biden by talking about her experiences as a mother set up the scenario perfectly. I wonder if she was unaware of the Biden family tragedy? Is she was unaware, why was she unaware??
Biden also wiped the floor with Palin in terms of closing statements. Her rather bizarre ramblings about losing our freedom and explaining to our children what freedom was like seemed almost our of some Cold War-era propoganda film. Biden's closing remark, however, were dead on. Calling for a complete change from the failed Bush administration, Biden summed this election up perfectly.
All in all, no one could argue that Biden won the debate. He may have been a bit boring, but he showed a real grasp of the issues and a real gravitas. Palin, on the other hand, showed that she is just not ready for the big leagues. While her performance was not the total disaster some had been predicting, I don't think any impartial observer watching could honestly say that Sarah Palin is ready to be president should the need arise.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
The Electoral Vote: October 1st
As Democrats learned the hard way in 2000, the popular vote is sadly irrelevant in a presidential election. The key is reaching the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. As we enter OCtober, many states are holding true to their traditional red or blue alignment. Others, however, are worth singling out.
For Senator Obama, the northeast, the west coast, and the Great Lakes region provide the bulk of his electoral votes. Currently, Obama holds a comfortable lead in the following states (electoral vote numbers are in parentheses.): Maine (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Washington (11), Oregon (7), California (55), and Hawaii (4). These states provide Obama with a base of 202 electoral votes. Among these, Iowa and New Mexico are interesting because they went narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004.
Senator McCain can claim the south, the Great Plains, and the upper Rocky Mountain regions as his base. Currently, McCain maintains a comfortable lead in the following states: West Virginia (5), South Carolina (8), Georgia (15), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11) Arkansas (6), Louisiana (9), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (34), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), and Alaska (3). This gives McCain a base of 174 electoral votes.
This leaves us with thirteen states that are theoretically "in play". In reality, many of these states are probably not in play. Three such states are Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All of these states will be close, but Obama has held a consistent (if narrow) lead in the polling for both states for some time. Michigan seems especially unlikely to go McCain. The Michigan economy is a train wreck and the unions are planning a massive GOTV effort in the Wolverine State in November. The United Auto Workers even have Election Day off as a holiday. Minnesota always seems to poll close, but reliably goes Democratic every four years. If we give Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to Obama, his electoral vote total becomes 239.
Pennsylvania is the other large Kerry state from 2004 that has yet to be nailed down. The McCain campaign is focusing on Pennsylvania as one of the Kerry states most likely to flip Republican this year. Accordingly, they are pouring money and candidate time into the state. While polling trends show the state to be fairly stable in narrowly supporting Obama, McCain may get some traction here. The Obama campaign is also spending heavily in Pennsylvania and is especially targeting the Philadelphia suburbs to help carry the state. At this point, I have to classify this state as "Leaning Obama", thus giving Obama 260 electoral votes.
As in every recent election the twin titans of Ohio and Florida are again up for grabs. Both campaigns are targeting these large, diverse states with considerable time and resources. Despite Democratic strength in the urban areas of Cleveland, Youngstown, and Toledo, Ohio does have a Republican tilt. Much of Ohio consists of small, rural communities where Republicans seldom have to worry about vote percentages. Even large Cincinnati is a Republican-flavored city. I was tempted early on to classify this state as "Leans McCain", but polling trends show this state to be a statistical tie every time. At this point, Ohio is truly up for grabs.
Florida is another state that continues to confound me. This should have been a McCain state, albeit a close state. Lately, however, Obama has been moving up in the polls steadily. Florida has been hit hard by the mortgage crisis and many senior citizens in Florida are probably watching their retirement accounts closely in the current financial chaos. While I am tempted to classify Florida as "Leans McCain", I'm going to keep it as a true toss-up for now.
Virginia and North Carolina are two states that should have been a cake walk for McCain. Both of these are large, reliably Republican states. The Obama campaign targeted Virginia early on, based on the recent successes Democrats have had in Virginia with Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb. Northern Virginia is also changing. As the DC suburbs expand, so do the number of Democratic voters moving into Virginia. Virginia also has a large military presence, which has proven to be fertile ground for Republicans. yet, after the total bungling of the Iraq War by the Bush Administration, these military families may be up for grabs. Recent polling data shows Obama building a small but slowly growing lead in the Old Dominion. At this point, I'm going to place Virginia in the "Leans Obama" category. I may move it later. At this point, Obama has 273 electoral votes, three more than are needed for victory.
North Carolina has seen rapid growth in high-tech jobs and the related influx of well-educated professionals into the state's "Research Triangle" area. Obama's campaign also spent considerable resources here in the May primary election. On the other hand, there is still a lot of North Carolina that is NOT well-educated transplants or college campus. How well Obama can do among these rural and small town voters remains to be seen. I'm still going to give North Carolina to McCain by a narrow margin, bringing McCain to 189 electoral votes.
In the west, both Colorado and Nevada continue to be highly competitive. Once reliably Republican, both of these states are now highly competitive. In these states, the large and growing Latino population could prove critical. While McCain has been courting Latino voters as aggressively as Obama has, polling indicates that Latinos are favoring Obama by large margins. Perhaps McCain is suffering from the fact that he sold out his position on immigration to appease the right wing of his party, who have spent the better part of the last few years trying to mask racism as "immigration reform". Both of these states are extremely close and I think both need to be classified as "toss ups" for now.
This leaves us with two states left: quirky little new Hampshire and my own Indiana. New Hampshire has been close in the last two elections, with Bush's margin in 2000 and Kerry's margin in 2004 both being just over 1%. This year, New Hampshire looks to be just as close. However, we did see a Democratic tsunami strike New Hampshire in 2006, with both incumbent Republican congressmen and several other Republican officials swept from office. On the other hand, New Hampshire has a strange love affair with John McCain. it jump-started his candidacy back in 2000 and resurrected him from the political dead in 2008. How this will play out in the fall is still uncertain and polling here shows the candidates deadlocked in repeated polls. Thus, New Hampshire rates "toss up".
Of all the states in this election cycle, none has surprised me more than Indiana. Indiana is among the reddest of the red states in presidential elections. I used to joke that the polls close here at 6pm and the networks light the ste up red by 6:01pm. This year, however, the polls show a close race. Most show McCain up, but within the margin of error. This shocks me and I am at a loss to explain it. While Obama was expected to do well in the industrial areas in the north of the state as well as in Marion County (Indianapolis), those areas are not enough to bring the race this close. I will say that the Obama campaign has a very impressive field operation on the ground here. I believe they have 32 campaign offices around the state, while the McCain campaign has yet to do anything here. Obama is on the air with some great TV ads, while McCain is only visible on networks. As much as I would love to see my state go blue for the first time in my life, I just can't see it happening in the end. Thus, reluctantly, Indiana goes to the "Leans McCain" column.
So, where does this leave us? My current predictions have Barack Obama with 273 electoral votes and John McCain with 200. I also have five states in the toss-up category: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. Other states may move around accordingly. For example, recent polls show Missouri tightening up. I will keep you up to date.
For Senator Obama, the northeast, the west coast, and the Great Lakes region provide the bulk of his electoral votes. Currently, Obama holds a comfortable lead in the following states (electoral vote numbers are in parentheses.): Maine (4), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New York (31), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Washington (11), Oregon (7), California (55), and Hawaii (4). These states provide Obama with a base of 202 electoral votes. Among these, Iowa and New Mexico are interesting because they went narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004.
Senator McCain can claim the south, the Great Plains, and the upper Rocky Mountain regions as his base. Currently, McCain maintains a comfortable lead in the following states: West Virginia (5), South Carolina (8), Georgia (15), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11) Arkansas (6), Louisiana (9), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (34), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), and Alaska (3). This gives McCain a base of 174 electoral votes.
This leaves us with thirteen states that are theoretically "in play". In reality, many of these states are probably not in play. Three such states are Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All of these states will be close, but Obama has held a consistent (if narrow) lead in the polling for both states for some time. Michigan seems especially unlikely to go McCain. The Michigan economy is a train wreck and the unions are planning a massive GOTV effort in the Wolverine State in November. The United Auto Workers even have Election Day off as a holiday. Minnesota always seems to poll close, but reliably goes Democratic every four years. If we give Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to Obama, his electoral vote total becomes 239.
Pennsylvania is the other large Kerry state from 2004 that has yet to be nailed down. The McCain campaign is focusing on Pennsylvania as one of the Kerry states most likely to flip Republican this year. Accordingly, they are pouring money and candidate time into the state. While polling trends show the state to be fairly stable in narrowly supporting Obama, McCain may get some traction here. The Obama campaign is also spending heavily in Pennsylvania and is especially targeting the Philadelphia suburbs to help carry the state. At this point, I have to classify this state as "Leaning Obama", thus giving Obama 260 electoral votes.
As in every recent election the twin titans of Ohio and Florida are again up for grabs. Both campaigns are targeting these large, diverse states with considerable time and resources. Despite Democratic strength in the urban areas of Cleveland, Youngstown, and Toledo, Ohio does have a Republican tilt. Much of Ohio consists of small, rural communities where Republicans seldom have to worry about vote percentages. Even large Cincinnati is a Republican-flavored city. I was tempted early on to classify this state as "Leans McCain", but polling trends show this state to be a statistical tie every time. At this point, Ohio is truly up for grabs.
Florida is another state that continues to confound me. This should have been a McCain state, albeit a close state. Lately, however, Obama has been moving up in the polls steadily. Florida has been hit hard by the mortgage crisis and many senior citizens in Florida are probably watching their retirement accounts closely in the current financial chaos. While I am tempted to classify Florida as "Leans McCain", I'm going to keep it as a true toss-up for now.
Virginia and North Carolina are two states that should have been a cake walk for McCain. Both of these are large, reliably Republican states. The Obama campaign targeted Virginia early on, based on the recent successes Democrats have had in Virginia with Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb. Northern Virginia is also changing. As the DC suburbs expand, so do the number of Democratic voters moving into Virginia. Virginia also has a large military presence, which has proven to be fertile ground for Republicans. yet, after the total bungling of the Iraq War by the Bush Administration, these military families may be up for grabs. Recent polling data shows Obama building a small but slowly growing lead in the Old Dominion. At this point, I'm going to place Virginia in the "Leans Obama" category. I may move it later. At this point, Obama has 273 electoral votes, three more than are needed for victory.
North Carolina has seen rapid growth in high-tech jobs and the related influx of well-educated professionals into the state's "Research Triangle" area. Obama's campaign also spent considerable resources here in the May primary election. On the other hand, there is still a lot of North Carolina that is NOT well-educated transplants or college campus. How well Obama can do among these rural and small town voters remains to be seen. I'm still going to give North Carolina to McCain by a narrow margin, bringing McCain to 189 electoral votes.
In the west, both Colorado and Nevada continue to be highly competitive. Once reliably Republican, both of these states are now highly competitive. In these states, the large and growing Latino population could prove critical. While McCain has been courting Latino voters as aggressively as Obama has, polling indicates that Latinos are favoring Obama by large margins. Perhaps McCain is suffering from the fact that he sold out his position on immigration to appease the right wing of his party, who have spent the better part of the last few years trying to mask racism as "immigration reform". Both of these states are extremely close and I think both need to be classified as "toss ups" for now.
This leaves us with two states left: quirky little new Hampshire and my own Indiana. New Hampshire has been close in the last two elections, with Bush's margin in 2000 and Kerry's margin in 2004 both being just over 1%. This year, New Hampshire looks to be just as close. However, we did see a Democratic tsunami strike New Hampshire in 2006, with both incumbent Republican congressmen and several other Republican officials swept from office. On the other hand, New Hampshire has a strange love affair with John McCain. it jump-started his candidacy back in 2000 and resurrected him from the political dead in 2008. How this will play out in the fall is still uncertain and polling here shows the candidates deadlocked in repeated polls. Thus, New Hampshire rates "toss up".
Of all the states in this election cycle, none has surprised me more than Indiana. Indiana is among the reddest of the red states in presidential elections. I used to joke that the polls close here at 6pm and the networks light the ste up red by 6:01pm. This year, however, the polls show a close race. Most show McCain up, but within the margin of error. This shocks me and I am at a loss to explain it. While Obama was expected to do well in the industrial areas in the north of the state as well as in Marion County (Indianapolis), those areas are not enough to bring the race this close. I will say that the Obama campaign has a very impressive field operation on the ground here. I believe they have 32 campaign offices around the state, while the McCain campaign has yet to do anything here. Obama is on the air with some great TV ads, while McCain is only visible on networks. As much as I would love to see my state go blue for the first time in my life, I just can't see it happening in the end. Thus, reluctantly, Indiana goes to the "Leans McCain" column.
So, where does this leave us? My current predictions have Barack Obama with 273 electoral votes and John McCain with 200. I also have five states in the toss-up category: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. Other states may move around accordingly. For example, recent polls show Missouri tightening up. I will keep you up to date.
Monday, September 29, 2008
September 29, 2008: The State of the Race
As we stand just over one month out from Election Day, this election continues to be fascinating. Unlike our friends over at Faux News, I don't pretend to be "fair and balanced". I support Barack Obama for president and have since his announcement rally. I feel that Senator Obama is the man to bring real change to this country after the Orwellian nightmare of the Bush/Cheney years.
The continuing economic crisis and the endless war in Iraq have engaged Americans in this presidential selection process in a way that I have never seen in my lifetime. From massive rallies in America's largest cities to barns here in Indiana painted with candidate logos, Americans are getting involved. They want to be heard. The vast majority of Americans feel that the country is off on the wrong track and they want a leader to put it back on track.
As we move closer to the final month of this campaign, the polls are beginning to show movement in Senator Obama's favor. This comes amid a growing financial crisis and the bizarre behavior of Senator McCain last week. it seems that Senator mcCain has very little left to offer except for gimmicks and negative ads. last week's gimmick seems to have really backfired. Citing the need to be in Washington, McCain "suspended" his campaign on the stated reason that he needed to be in Washington to work on the bailout package. Apparently, "working on" to Senator McCain means trying to stage photo ops to make your total ineffectiveness look like total effectiveness.
The truly high (or low?) point of the McCain meltdown was his threats to skip the scheduled debate with Senator Obama last Friday. Obama called his bluff, and McCain folded like a house of cards. The public wanted the debate to go forward and seemed to sense a cheap gimmick when they saw one. i don't think its coincidence that McCain has been sliding in the polls steadily since last week.
We are starting to see the results of these events in the changing Electoral College prediction maps. Formerly safe Republican states are now "toss ups", while former "toss ups" are now trending Democratic. Tomorrow, I will look at the electoral map in depth and see what each candidate needs to do to hit the magical 270.
Also this week, we have the vice presidential debate between Senator Joe Biden and SNL's Tina Fey. Oops, sorry, that's Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. The Republican noise machine has tried to set the bar so low for Palin that she would only have to appear semi-conscious for them to say that she has "exceeded expectations". Biden does run the risk, however, of coming off as "too aggressive" and appearing ungentlemanly. This happened to Republican Congressman Rick Lazio in his debate with Hillary Clinton in 2000. I look forward to seeing Sarah Palin explain to me how being able to see Russian from the Alaska coast gives her foreign policy experience or how blocking an official inquiry into your conduct as governor makes one a "reformer".
TOMORROW: Reading the Electoral College tea leaves
The continuing economic crisis and the endless war in Iraq have engaged Americans in this presidential selection process in a way that I have never seen in my lifetime. From massive rallies in America's largest cities to barns here in Indiana painted with candidate logos, Americans are getting involved. They want to be heard. The vast majority of Americans feel that the country is off on the wrong track and they want a leader to put it back on track.
As we move closer to the final month of this campaign, the polls are beginning to show movement in Senator Obama's favor. This comes amid a growing financial crisis and the bizarre behavior of Senator McCain last week. it seems that Senator mcCain has very little left to offer except for gimmicks and negative ads. last week's gimmick seems to have really backfired. Citing the need to be in Washington, McCain "suspended" his campaign on the stated reason that he needed to be in Washington to work on the bailout package. Apparently, "working on" to Senator McCain means trying to stage photo ops to make your total ineffectiveness look like total effectiveness.
The truly high (or low?) point of the McCain meltdown was his threats to skip the scheduled debate with Senator Obama last Friday. Obama called his bluff, and McCain folded like a house of cards. The public wanted the debate to go forward and seemed to sense a cheap gimmick when they saw one. i don't think its coincidence that McCain has been sliding in the polls steadily since last week.
We are starting to see the results of these events in the changing Electoral College prediction maps. Formerly safe Republican states are now "toss ups", while former "toss ups" are now trending Democratic. Tomorrow, I will look at the electoral map in depth and see what each candidate needs to do to hit the magical 270.
Also this week, we have the vice presidential debate between Senator Joe Biden and SNL's Tina Fey. Oops, sorry, that's Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. The Republican noise machine has tried to set the bar so low for Palin that she would only have to appear semi-conscious for them to say that she has "exceeded expectations". Biden does run the risk, however, of coming off as "too aggressive" and appearing ungentlemanly. This happened to Republican Congressman Rick Lazio in his debate with Hillary Clinton in 2000. I look forward to seeing Sarah Palin explain to me how being able to see Russian from the Alaska coast gives her foreign policy experience or how blocking an official inquiry into your conduct as governor makes one a "reformer".
TOMORROW: Reading the Electoral College tea leaves
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)