What's going on in Indiana????

If this presidential race hadn't produced enough surprises, on of the biggest is still very much in the forefront. With less than 48 hours until the polls close, Indiana is still up for grabs, according to several polls. Normally, Hoosiers are used to the networks turning Indiana red within minutes of the polls closing. This year, we may have to wait a while. The folks I talk to are all asking "What's going on with Indiana?"

First, Hoosiers are very engaged in this election, especially Democrats. This year's Democratic Primary for president was something we haven't seen in Indiana since 1968: relevant. Normally, our may primary comes long after both parties have wrapped up their nominations and we see almost no campaigning here. This year, not only was the Democratic race still very much alive in May, but Indiana proved to be a hard-fought battle. In the end, Hillary Clinton squeaked out a thin victory here.

The primary allowed the Obama forces to do two things: recruit volunteers and develop a state-wide game plan. These Obama volunteers descended on Indiana like an army in the spring, and they have come back in the fall. The Obama forces have to be the best-organized ground game that I have ever seen. They seem to be anywhere and everywhere. They have also registered tens of thousands of new voters around the state. Now, they are following up with those voters to make sure they get to the polls. In contrast, there is no McCain ground game in Indiana. McCain has one field office to cover the entire state. I have yet to encounter one McCain volunteer.

Even the candidates' schedules reflect different takes on Indiana. Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, and Joe Biden have each made campaign stops here since the Democratic Convention. Obama's crowds have been huge, culminating in a rally earlier this fall in Indianapolis where police estimate a turn-out of 20,000 on a weekday morning. In contrast, John McCain has yet to visit Indiana this fall. Sarah Palin has been here twice. It's almost as if the McCain forces are just counting on Hoosiers to vote Republican because they always do so. I'm not sure if I'd place that much faith in traditions.

This Obama-driven desire for change has filtered down to the Congressional races. In Indiana 2, freshman Congressman Joe Donnelly is cruising to an easy re-election over a completely inept Republican opponent. Donnelly has served his constituents well in his first term, but could not take his hard work for granted. Indiana 2 is very much a toss-up district, having had three different representatives in the House since 2000. Donnelly's opponent was apparently counting on being swept in by a McCain wave, as his yard signs even mimic the McCain design. Looks like the tidal wave is coming from the opposite direction.

While Donnelly cruises, Congressman Mark Souder is fighting for his political life. Souder is a Republican who represents Indian 3, a solidly Republican district in northeast Indiana. Normally, this would be a cake-walk for Souder, who routinely crushes all Democratic challengers in this very conservative district. Yet, this year is different. Souder has not done anything kooky (a la Michelle Bachmann) or corrupt to endanger his seat, yer he is finding himself locked in a tight battle with Mike Montagano, an attorney and first-time candidate. Polls are showing this race to be very close and both national parties are pouring money into it. on Election Night, Souder could be our "canary in the coal mine". All polls in this district close at 6pm Eastern Time. if Souder is defeated quickly or the race remains too close to call for some time, it may be a very bad omen for Republicans. If a scandal-free incumbent with a history of easy wins in a solidly Republican district goes down, the Republicans may look at losing more than thirty House seats.

it would seem that the only bright spot for Republicans is the almost assured re-election of Governor Mitch Daniels. Democrats had high hopes of knocking off Daniels, who had previously served as Budget Director in the Bush administration. After a very close primary, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson won the Democratic nomination and seemingly fell off the face of the earth. With a huge cash advantage, Daniels was able to run positive ads all summer and many of these ads were very well-done. In contrast, Long Thompson seemingly was nowhere to be seen. When she did resurface this fall, it was to call a press conference claiming that Daniels billed the state for political travels. Nobody cared. Long Thompson's campaign has been a major disappointment to Democrats, some of whom have referred to it in conversations with me as "non-existent" and "amateurish".

The big question now is this: will all of the efforts of the Obama campaign be enough to tip this ruby-red state blue? They key will be who can get their supporters to the polls. On this, the Obama campaign's GOTV efforts are light-years ahead of McCain's "lets hope they vote like they always do" strategy. Still, Indiana is a conservative state where Republican loyalties run deep. Early voting has exceeded all predictions and turn out is expected to shatter records.

I don't know if Indiana will turn blue or not. if it doesn't, it will surely be decided by a narrow margin. Considering that Indiana usually gives the GOP standard bearer a margin of twenty points or more, a close loss for the Obama folks will be a major victory. if they win Indiana, it will be earth-shattering.