The End of the Marathon

Well, it's finally here: Election Day. After what seems like an eternity of debates, primaries, caucuses, conventions, more debates, more speeches, a landslide of ads, and some great material On Saturday Night Live, we go to the polls.

At this point, John McCain will need a miracle to avoid humiliating defeat. In many quarters, the talk has been not "Will Barack Obama win?" but "How big will Obama win?" Some people are even wondering if the networks will wait until the west coast's polls close to declare a winner. From what I see, we will know very early on.

The key early states to watch are Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia. All of these states will have their polls close at 7pm. Most of Indiana closes at 6pm Eastern Time, but the western areas of the state are on Central Time. Traditionally, all three of these states go red within a few minutes of the polls closing. Tonight will be different. If any of these states turn blue, McCain probably has no realistic path to 270 electoral votes. Obama has enjoyed a slim lead in Virginia for some time now, but Indiana and Georgia appear too close to call at this point.

At 7:30pm Eastern Time, the polls close in North Carolina. This is another state that usually goes red fairly quickly, yet the polls here are also too close to call. While we will most likely wait for some time for North Carolina, a quick Obama victory here would be the death knell for McCain.

On the Senate side, the Democrats stand poised to make dramatic gains. Within a few minutes after the polls close, former governor Mark Warner will be declared the winner of the open Virginia race. Warner has lead his predecessor as governor, Jim Gilmore, by about twenty percent all year so this will be no surprise. Conversely, the Senate race in North Carolina could be another good indicator. Elizabeth Dole was supposed to cruise to an easy victory, but a combination of her badly run campaign, the national economic crisis, and challenger Kay Hagen's near perfect political pitch have made this a battle. An early Hagen win could bode very well for Obama in the Tarheel State.

At 8pm, the polls will close in many eastern states, most importantly Pennsylvania. A quick call of Pennsylvania may happen tonight. If it goes Obama, as all polls have indicated, there is no real way McCain gets to 270 without some HUGE upset. If Viginia and then Pennsylvania go blue, stick a fork in McCain 'cause he's DONE.

For me, a presidential election night is like watching the World Series. i prefer to avoid the big parties so I can watch the coverage uninterrupted and without having to strain to hear what's being said. I think tonight will be a night for the ages!