Thursday, October 9, 2008

Well, the news from the battleground states cannot be bringing much comfort to the McCain campaign. Last week, they decided to "wave the white flag of surrender" (Thanks, Sarah, wink, wink!!) in Michigan. After the newest round of polls, they may want to buy a lot more white linen.

Pollster.com has been doing a yeoman's job of gathering and compiling polling data to try to give us a good idea of where the states stand. Last week, I was considering five states to be true toss-ups: New Hampshire, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada. Recent polling has shown that New Hampshire has moved towards Obama, with some polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead in the Granite State.

Likewise, Colorado seems to be trending away from McCain. While some polls have shown Obama moving way out ahead, most pollsters are showing Obama with a lead of a few points. In many polls, the spread is withing the margin of error.

Nevada, on the other hand, has remained firmly in the toss-up category. Various polls show minute leads for either candidate. Pollster.com is giving Obama an aggregate lead of two percent, well within anyone's margin of error. We may be up quite late election night waiting for Nevada to be decided.

Much to the consternation of Republicans, Ohio and Florida are also trending Obama's way. in some polls, Obama has now topped 50% in Florida. Ohio is closer than Flrodia, but most polls are giving Obama a slight lead in the Buckeye State.

One other state that promises to be a cliff-hanger is North Carolina. Polling in this state has been TIGHT. Leads are fluctuating, many polls are tied, and nobody is outside of the margin of error. This is terrible news for the McCain folks. North Carolina has not voted Democratic since 1976. George W. Bush carried it by twelve percent in 2004.

Another state that may be entering the realm of the toss-up is West Virginia. This was formerly a Democratic stronghold in presidential elections. It was one of only five states to stick with Jimmy Carter in 1980 and one of only ten who went for Michael Dukakis in 1988. In 2000, however, many political observers were shocked when West Virginia went to George W. Bush. Recent polls have shown the 2008 race to be tightening in West Virginia. unfotunatley, there have just not been many polls done here to establish a true trend.

My current Electoral College forecast:

Barack Obama: 333
John McCain: 169
Toss-Ups: 36*

* = My remaining toss-up states are: West Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada

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